Markets priced at 48% YES resolve NO 79% of the time. ORACLE found that edge first — and it's been compounding ever since. 8 independent signal channels. 93,000+ markets tracked. 86.8% accuracy on markets scored before resolution.
// WHAT ORACLE IS
ORACLE is the institutional intelligence layer that prediction markets are missing. While traders on Polymarket ($10.57B monthly volume) and Kalshi ($11B valuation) make billion-dollar bets with nothing more than gut and a price chart, ORACLE aggregates 8 independent signal channels — price velocity, macro regime, news sentiment, whale activity, historical calibration, and machine learning probability — into a single 0–100 conviction score with directional call and confidence tier.
It tracks 93,000+ markets across both platforms, scores the highest-priority ones every 30 minutes, captures every resolution, and learns from each outcome. The result is a compounding track record that gets measurably more accurate over time.
// 8 SIGNAL CHANNELS
Convergence architecture: two or more directional signals agreeing → HIGH conviction. Single-signal maximum caps at MEDIUM — prevents false confidence on unconfirmed edges.
// THE STRUCTURAL EDGE — 282 RESOLVED MARKETS
The most important finding from 282 resolved markets: prediction markets are systematically mispriced near 50%.
Markets opening at ~48% YES resolve YES only 21% of the time — a 27-percentage-point NO edge hiding in plain sight.
Markets opening at ~52% YES resolve YES 66% of the time — a 14pp YES edge.
Markets separated by just 4 percentage points at open have a 45pp difference in actual resolution rates. This is not noise: 50 markets in the 52% bucket, 19 in the 48% bucket. ORACLE's Signal 8 (Historical Accuracy) detects it automatically on every market scored.
// VERIFIED RESULTS — NO SYNTHETIC DATA
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Overall accuracy on called markets | 86.8% on 38 markets |
| Wrong calls at conviction score ≥60 | 0 |
| Price velocity accuracy | 94.3% on 35 attributed markets |
| Price velocity weight (Bayesian updated) | 1.0 → 1.886× |
| Markets resolved and tracked | 282 |
| Price history records | 353,000+ |
| Markets tracked (Polymarket + Kalshi) | 93,000+ |
| Full prediction log | Public — /dashboard → Track Record |
// PRICING
// ACCESS
Active prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi. Quantitative analysts who want programmatic access to institutional-grade signal data. Anyone who already has skin in the game and wants to know if their thesis has signal behind it.
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